( ISSN 2277 - 9809 (online) ISSN 2348 - 9359 (Print) ) New DOI : 10.32804/IRJMSH

Impact Factor* - 6.2311


**Need Help in Content editing, Data Analysis.

Research Gateway

Adv For Editing Content

   No of Download : 138    Submit Your Rating     Cite This   Download        Certificate

FORECASTING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS IN INDIA WITH ARIMA MODELS

    2 Author(s):  SWATI SINGH, DR. DEVESH KUMAR

Vol -  8, Issue- 11 ,         Page(s) : 210 - 219  (2017 ) DOI : https://doi.org/10.32804/IRJMSH

Abstract

The present study is an attempt to build ARIMA model to forecast foreign direct investment inflows from 2016 to 2021 for sectors that attracted higher inflows of foreign direct investment in India. Employing Box- Jenkins methodology ARIMA (110), ARIMA (011) and ARIMA (111) models were developed for FDI time series data. The accuracy of the models was tested by performing different diagnostic tests to ensure the accuracy of the results. The results show that ARIMA (110) is the best model for FDI inflow in housing sector and computer sector, ARIMA (011) is the best model for FDI inflow in services sector and telecommunication sector, and ARIMA (111) is the best model for Total FDI inflow and FDI inflow in automobile sector. The results of ARIMA models revealed an increasing pattern of FDI inflow in all sector over the period of forecasting. As per results of ARIMA (111) model, India can receive total FDI inflow up to $ 48273.6 in 2020-21.

1. Anitha,R.(2012,Aug.).” Foreign direct investment and economic growth in India”. International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research. 1(8), pp.108-125.
2. Akaike, H. (1974). “A new look at the statistical model identification”. IEEE Trans on Automatic Control. 19(6), pp.716-723.
3. Maity, B. and Chatterjee, B. (2012, Sep). “Forecasting GDP Growth Rates of India: An Empirical Study”. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences. 1(9): pp.52-58.
4. Biswas, A. (2015, July-Sep). “Forecasting Net Foreign Direct Investment in India: Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model”. International Journal of Research of Management & Business Studies. 5(3), pp.49-58.
5. Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M. and Reinsel, G.C. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. 1994.575 pp.
6. Khan, I. (2012, Aug).” Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) On Indian Economy: A Sectoral Analysis”. International Journal of Research in Commerce, Economics & Management. 2 (8), pp. 171-178.
7. Perera, W.L.P. (2015, Jan). “Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka for the Period from Year 2014-2064”.International Journal of Art and Commerce. 4(1), pp. 34-45.
8. Rajalakshmi K. and Ramachandran T. (2011, Nov).” Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on India’s Automobile sector-with reference to Passenger car segment”. Research Journal of Science & IT Management. 1(1), pp. 22-40.
9. Sharmiladevi J.C. and Ali M.I. (2013, Dec).” An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in India”. Research Journal of Economics and Business Studies. 2(12),pp. 42-48
10. Singhania, M. and   Gupta, A. (2011, Jan)."Determinants of foreign direct investment in India". Journal of International Trade Law and Policy. 10(1), pp.64-82. 
11. Singh, B. (2015, Sep-Oct).”Modeling and Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment in India”. Arthshastra:  Indian Journal of Economics & Research.4 (5):pp.23-40.

*Contents are provided by Authors of articles. Please contact us if you having any query.






Bank Details